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Indian Pediatr 2009;46: 412-414 |
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Clinicoepidemiological Scoring System for
Early Diagnosis of Pediatric HIV |
Anuja Bandyopadhyay, Subhasish Bhattacharyya and Ambar Banerjee
From the Department of Pediatrics (Medicine), Calcutta
Medical College, 88, College Street,
Kolkata 700 072, West Bengal, India.
Correspondence to: Anuja Bandyopadhyay, Flat no 27,
Alipore Estates,
8/6/1 Alipore Road, Kolkata 700 027, India.
E-mail:
[email protected]
Manuscript received: August 27, 2007;
Initial review: October 29, 2007;
Accepted: July 7, 2008.
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Abstract
This pilot study was aimed at testing the feasibility
of using a standardized questionnaire as a screening tool for detection
of pediatric HIV at first contact. A prospective study was carried out
on a cohort of 400 new patients attending the pediatric outdoor patient
department in Medical College, Kolkata. After examining, the attending
physician noted his clinical impression, filled the standardized
questionnaire and scored each patient. ELISA test was performed. The
results of the diagnostic tests were correlated with the clinical
impression and the score. Taking a score of 9 as the cut-off, the
sensitivity and specificity of the scoring system was 95.7% and 98.6%,
respectively. We conclude that this clinicoepidemiological scoring
system may be used to screen children for HIV in resource-limited
settings.
Keywords: Diagnosis, Pediatric HIV, Scoring system.
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I n children, HIV presents with a
spectrum of manifestations, ranging from simple diarrhea to a complicated
case of failure to thrive. Therefore, the need arises for a uniform,
standardized protocol which would enable not only the clinicians, but also
the paramedics as well as other health workers to identify the population
to be screened for HIV. A clinicoepidemiological scoring system was
devised by the Apex clinic, Medical College, Kolkata as a screening tool
to identify children with HIV(1). The aim of this pilot study was to
establish whether this scoring system could be used in day-to-day practice
in the out patient department for early diagnosis of pediatric HIV.
Methods
Ethical clearance was obtained from the institutional
ethical committee. The study population included 400 consecutive children
(18 mo-14 yrs) attending the pediatric outdoor patient department at
Medical College, Kolkata between 1st February to 30th April, 2006 for the
first time. Known HIV positive patients and those patients whose guardians
could not furnish the desired information were excluded.
These children were examined by the attending physician
and the clinical impression was noted. Consent for inclusion in the study
was sought in all cases from parents and legal guardians, and assent from
children over the age of 7 years. At the end of the examination, a
questionnaire based on the scoring system, was filled up by the attending
physician for each of the subjects, on the basis of the information given
by the guardians and the clinical parameters present in the child. The
points allocated to each of the parameters are tabulated in Table
I. A score was given. ELISA test was performed in all the subjects
as a screening measure. Those found positive were confirmed by repeat
ELISA and Western blot. The results of the diagnostic tests were compared
with the clinical impression of the physician and the scoring obtained.
The sensitivity and specificity of the scoring system to diagnose HIV was
calculated using cut-off value of 9, 14 and 19. The diagnostic odds ratio
was computed for both the methods and compared. A receiver operating
characteristics (ROC) curve was plotted to define the cut-off points for
the scoring system and analyzed.
TABLE I
Scoring System for Diagnosis of HIV in Children
Parameters |
Point allocated |
Father is a truck-driver/migrant labourer/transport worker |
3 |
Father’s place of work is in Mumbai/ Chennai/ Hyderabad/ Bangalore |
3 |
Father’s place of work is away from home, but not in Mumbai/
Chennai/Hyderabad/Bangalore |
2 |
Father suffers from all or any 2 of the following: wasting/ chronic
diarrhea/TB |
3 |
Father suffers from only 1 of the following, but not 2/3 of the
following: wasting/chronic diarrhea/TB |
2 |
History of sudden death of either parent without any definite cause |
3 |
History of blood transfusion in the child |
2 |
Recurrent/chronic diarrhea >1 month |
3 |
Recurrent pneumonia/TB |
3 |
Persisting oropharyngeal candidiasis >2 months |
3 |
Persisting fever >1 month |
3 |
Bilateral non-tender parotitis |
2 |
Failure to thrive |
2 |
Extensive seborrheic dermatitis |
2 |
Extensive molluscum contagiosum |
2 |
Hepatomegaly |
1 |
Generalised lymphadenopathy |
1 |
Maximum score: 38 |
Results
Of the 378 patients (M=201, F=177, mean age=7.1±4.2
years), 92 were found to be HIV positive; 22 patients refused to be
screened by ELISA.
Of the 286 patients, scoring between 0-9, 99% were HIV
negative. All the 51 patients who scored above 19, were confirmed to be
HIV positive. Only 12 HIV positive patients were suspected correctly at
the out patient department. Eighty patients were missed by clinical
suspicion alone. Of them, 76 patients were correctly identified by the
scoring system. The optimized cut-off for sensitivity (95.7%) and
specificity (98.6%) was calculated at 9, implicating that a score >9
suggests a high possibility of HIV, while those scoring
£9
in the questionnaire were at less risk of being HIV positive. Comparing
the diagnostic odds ratio in Table II, the scoring system is
1374 times more likely to diagnose a HIV positive pediatric patient as
compared to 42 times by clinical suspicion only.
TABLE II
Comparison of Clinical Suspicion and Scoring System for Diagnosing HIV Positive Pediatric Patients
|
Clinical suspicion |
Scoring system |
HIV positive patients detected |
12/92 (13%) |
88/92 (95.7%) |
Correct diagnosis |
297/378 (78.6%) |
370/378 (97.9%) |
Sensitivity (95% CI) |
13.0% (6.9% to 21.7%) |
95.7% (89.2% to 98.8%) |
Specificity (95% CI) |
99.7% (98.1% to 99.9%) |
98.6% (96.5% to 99.6%) |
Positive predictive value (95% CI) |
92.3% (64% to 99.8%), |
95.7% (89.2% to 98.8%), |
|
{change = 68%} |
{change = 72%} |
Negative predictive value (95% CI) |
78.1% (73.5% to 82.2%), |
98.6% (96.5% to 99.6%), |
|
{change = 2%} |
{change = 23%} |
Positive likelihood ratio (95% CI) |
37.3 (6.3 to 221.8) |
68.4 (27 to 177) |
Negative likelihood ratio (95% CI) |
0.87 (0.79 to 0.93) |
0.04 (0.02 to 0.11) |
Diagnostic odds ratio |
42.3 (6.1 to 1833.5) |
1373.6 (333.2 to 8127.9) |
Discussion
Although universal screening programs may be more
meticulous than voluntary screening, it increases expenses. Selective
screening of patients based on history and clinical examination may
provide a solution. The 2005 revised WHO clinical staging for infants and
children, mentions >40 clinical conditions for staging the child. For
field purposes or in the out patient department with a heavy patient load,
such an exhaustive clinical search would be difficult to perform. Further,
Indian studies on clinical profile of pediatric HIV(2-9) show that not all
those clinical conditions are observed in our country. Several Indian
studies(10,11) have established the utility of a clinically directed
selective screening for pediatric HIV, but they did not have an
epidemiological component.
This scoring system was devised keeping in mind the
common clinical presentations and local epidemiological pattern. The
weightage given to each parameter was based on the degree of importance
and specificity that each of the parameter had in relation to HIV
infection.
Thirteen children diagnosed on the ground of clinical
suspicion alone were mostly those who remained undiagnosed after a
thorough complete investigative work up. If such patients are seen in the
out-door patient department, it would not be possible to suspect them as
HIV positive in the first visit. However, if we use the scoring system,
such patients will be identified as high risk in the very first visit. In
our study, we have not quantified the clinical impression of the
physician. However, this scoring system gives uniform results irrespective
of the expertise of the physician.
In the study, four HIV positive patients scored in the
0-9 range. All of them were asymptomatic thalassemic patients, thus
limiting the role of the scoring system in their diagnosis. One of the
main issues in the diagnosis of HIV infection in children is
non-accessibility of facilities for the diagnosis of HIV infection in
children <18 months. This study does not address it either, making it a
limitation.
This study was conducted based on information specific
to this region and current epidemiology. Such a screening tool maybe
modified according to the epidemiology of different regions. This is a
pilot study to serve as a prototype in devising local screening tools to
detect HIV positive patients.
Contributors: SB designed and planned the study. AB
and AmB collected the data, conducted literature search, analysed and
interpreted the data and drafted the manuscript. SB revised the manuscript
critically for important intellectual content.
Funding: None.
Competing interest: None stated.
What This Study Adds?
• A scoring system based on the clinical and epidemiological
variations of a region maybe used as a screening tool for diagnosing
pediatric HIV.
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